Open For Business… Almost

By: Bob Dearing, CFE

Finally! Some of the restrictions are being slightly relieved and we can begin to get back to normal. Well, not quite! We are moving in that direction, but it looks like it will take longer than we expected. The three individual phases in the recent government guidelines for opening America are relatively simple and straight forward however, before you get too excited you need to read the small print also known as the “gating criteria”.

The process leading up to each phase of the rollout is specific and must be re-confirmed each time before moving to the next phase. In other words, it is not a “timed” event but a compliance exercise. If you have not read the program, I strongly recommend that you do to keep yourself up to date on what you can expect as we move forward. You can find the complete guidelines at https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/#criteria

What to expect  

Once your state, city and/or municipal government has met the “gating criteria” your area of the country can move on to Phase One of the reopening processes. Do not expect day one to look like the last day you worked before the coronavirus took control of your life. Sadly, some employers that closed because of the virus will not survive and will be unable to re-open.

Companies that do re-open are classified as “Employers” and “Specific Types of Employers”. Depending on their classification they may be asked to observe somewhat different safety criteria and, in some cases, asked not to open at all or not to allow public access to their business during this phase. For those that do open they will be asked to do it slowly and not return their entire workforce at one time. They will continue to encourage telework whenever possible. Those employees that do return initially will be asked to continue social distancing, avoid socializing in groups of more than 10 people and continue personal hygiene and frequent hand washing. Assuming the current mediation measures continue to hold the virus at arm’s length the plan is to continue to Phase Two and then to Phase Three. Remember, gating criteria must be confirmed before moving to each of the next phases. If it flares up again then look for other measures to be enacted.

How will business begin to recover?

There is not a “One size fits all” answer to this question. You would not expect there would be since there are over 30. million small businesses in this country. The Small Business Administration (SBA) identifies a small business as one with less than 500 employees so, if you are reading this then chances are that you work for a small business.

While the 30 million-plus business is different many of them will be faced with similar problems. Their pipeline (booked business) is largely depleted so they will be dependent on customers coming back to restart their business. If it is a food service, their refrigerators are empty and must be replenished. Inventories in other businesses are likely to be out of balance and popular items unavailable. Sounds like a simple fix, right? On paper, yes, but it is going to be difficult. Remember, there are millions of businesses all in the same boat when it comes to inventory or business supplies.

OK, then order what you need

It may not be as simple as it sounds. I am sure you are aware that over the past few weeks the country has had an embarrassing shortage of toilet paper. The public outcry has been that people are “hoarding” and they were asked to stop. It is likely if you have been in a grocery store or big-box retailer lately not only is the paper products aisle empty, but a lot of other empty shelves are showing up as well. This is not a hoarding problem; it is a supply chain problem. You hear that term mentioned in newscast lately but exactly what is a supply chain. You order what you need from the distributor and it shows up the next day, right? Not quite! The Business Dictionary gives us a good definition and a better understanding of what a supply chain really is:

The entire network of entities, directly or indirectly interlinked and interdependent in serving the same consumer or customer. It is comprised of vendors that supply raw materials, producers who convert the material into products, warehouses that store, distribution centers that deliver to the retailers, and retailers who bring the product to the ultimate user.

Are you beginning to see the problem? An important part of running a small business is ensuring that you have good supply chain management to ensure that your stock is always on hand and ready for anything. Covid-19 has disrupted the supply chain at every level. Raw material suppliers, US manufacturers, foreign producing countries of origin, transportation companies and warehousing businesses have all been affected. No one has been immune!

How long?

Our country, and the world, will recover. Supply chain components will begin to come together at all levels, but it will take a little time and a lot of patience. Businesses will gradually begin to re-open and customers will start to come back. Most people “sheltered in place” will return to a semblance of normalcy. Will we return to the normal of a few weeks ago? Probably not completely. Some of the things we learned during the shutdown will stay with us and become a normal part of our lives going forward. Like it or not Covid-19 has awakened our awareness to just how vulnerable our lives and economic security really are. Think about the magnitude of the events that have affected every person and every part of our lives over the past few weeks. Then ask yourself…How long?

One last thing

The Covid-19 issues are far from over. This is a serious and often deadly virus. Read, understand, and follow the individual’s guidelines to “Opening up America Again” not only for your protection but the protection of others as well.

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